There is a lot of both wheat and chaff here. To pick one example where you are dead wrong, the DF severe adverse scenario stress tests results show GSEs pass with flying colors. You for some reason spit the bit on this. And any mention of Glen Bradford in a serious analysis is perplexing.
I feel like there's an easy way to explain everything in just a few paragraphs. We should assume the President is telling the truth and stop writing 50 blogs and paywall articles why this might happen much later or that there isn't going to be any value for commons despite there being plenty now and the volume is driven by institutions too. Bill Ackman is not the sole expert but when he said the government having a fund that locks in a stake that is part of a private government portfolio signaling the world and our rich allies in the Gulf States to Norway and elsewhere our lending (deregulation on Basel III, SLR will be huge this summer), our low mortgage rates (10Y benchmark will plummet with banks allowed to buy up to 2T in treasuries to do stablecoin backing alone) and thus prime time for unleashed liquidity to feed the already booming CME Group's fixed-income addition to its global #1 rank by vol trading per day of Treasuries @BrokerTec. MBS by F2 is the #2 fixed-income product by volume every day. Pulte even said the CCP has come to buy the Agency MBS of late because they're just great assets and from 2011-2019 all that congressional regulation and FHFA conservatorship produced a 90d delinquency rate of mortgages in Agency MBS of 4% - since 2021-2024 when AI and ML checked the borrower before buying the mortgage off a lender the processing became both automated and checked more qualifications besides FICOs and stated income with access to a variety of different qualifications and the rate of 90 day delinquencies in that period was approx. <0.5% (10% of the "reforms of the FHFA and pre-Trump installed FHFA Director, go figure). I think people don't understand the velocity of the highways and plugged in global markets that are going to be buying secondary market offerings making lightspeed profits for the GSEs as private companies out of Conservatorship as well as the US Banks rolling back all Basel III and SLR post 2008 GFC regulatory burdens, especially penalizing US Banks for buying Treasuries in the SLR. It's going to be a very efficient fast paced and high volume process. Don't be surprised if those Argentina CEDEARS that began trading again in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange that they had issued since 2011 for $FNMA at a 3:1 rations CEDEAR:common stock held in custody at BNY and 100,000,000 shares of common stock for FNMA(1/3)/ARS trading coming back first time since Sep 2019. The Argentine market is issuing 30 year fixed rate mortgages from priv sector banks in dollar denominations already. They will love to derisk and make $USD from our GSEs while we hook them up to the secondary market. We have a whole mini MAGA USA down in our southernmost part of our Western Sphere and do not think for a second we won't do business with them. Time to go global.
I did a dilution for $FNMA and lowballed with the 5.87B shares at $145 FV. I always go low. Peter Lynch model is $153. I don't think $200 is out of the question. We are getting deregulation and tax cutss with this incredible event. Cheers.
Great and in depth article. However Bessent has much more say in this, than you indicated ( which was virtually none). He's a great advocate of lower cap rates for banks, and I anticipate he reduce the cap rates for the GSE's.
There is a lot of both wheat and chaff here. To pick one example where you are dead wrong, the DF severe adverse scenario stress tests results show GSEs pass with flying colors. You for some reason spit the bit on this. And any mention of Glen Bradford in a serious analysis is perplexing.
x2 Glen Bradford - no comment. XD
I feel like there's an easy way to explain everything in just a few paragraphs. We should assume the President is telling the truth and stop writing 50 blogs and paywall articles why this might happen much later or that there isn't going to be any value for commons despite there being plenty now and the volume is driven by institutions too. Bill Ackman is not the sole expert but when he said the government having a fund that locks in a stake that is part of a private government portfolio signaling the world and our rich allies in the Gulf States to Norway and elsewhere our lending (deregulation on Basel III, SLR will be huge this summer), our low mortgage rates (10Y benchmark will plummet with banks allowed to buy up to 2T in treasuries to do stablecoin backing alone) and thus prime time for unleashed liquidity to feed the already booming CME Group's fixed-income addition to its global #1 rank by vol trading per day of Treasuries @BrokerTec. MBS by F2 is the #2 fixed-income product by volume every day. Pulte even said the CCP has come to buy the Agency MBS of late because they're just great assets and from 2011-2019 all that congressional regulation and FHFA conservatorship produced a 90d delinquency rate of mortgages in Agency MBS of 4% - since 2021-2024 when AI and ML checked the borrower before buying the mortgage off a lender the processing became both automated and checked more qualifications besides FICOs and stated income with access to a variety of different qualifications and the rate of 90 day delinquencies in that period was approx. <0.5% (10% of the "reforms of the FHFA and pre-Trump installed FHFA Director, go figure). I think people don't understand the velocity of the highways and plugged in global markets that are going to be buying secondary market offerings making lightspeed profits for the GSEs as private companies out of Conservatorship as well as the US Banks rolling back all Basel III and SLR post 2008 GFC regulatory burdens, especially penalizing US Banks for buying Treasuries in the SLR. It's going to be a very efficient fast paced and high volume process. Don't be surprised if those Argentina CEDEARS that began trading again in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange that they had issued since 2011 for $FNMA at a 3:1 rations CEDEAR:common stock held in custody at BNY and 100,000,000 shares of common stock for FNMA(1/3)/ARS trading coming back first time since Sep 2019. The Argentine market is issuing 30 year fixed rate mortgages from priv sector banks in dollar denominations already. They will love to derisk and make $USD from our GSEs while we hook them up to the secondary market. We have a whole mini MAGA USA down in our southernmost part of our Western Sphere and do not think for a second we won't do business with them. Time to go global.
I did a dilution for $FNMA and lowballed with the 5.87B shares at $145 FV. I always go low. Peter Lynch model is $153. I don't think $200 is out of the question. We are getting deregulation and tax cutss with this incredible event. Cheers.
Great and in depth article. However Bessent has much more say in this, than you indicated ( which was virtually none). He's a great advocate of lower cap rates for banks, and I anticipate he reduce the cap rates for the GSE's.